Oscar Predictions

I have a confession to make. I LOVE the Oscars. Sure, it's cheesy, overlong, infuriating, awash with tears and backslapping but that's all part of the allure. Ricky Gervais may take the blow torch to the HFPA and their ludicrous Golden Globes, Big Russ can single-handedly take on the BAFTAs, apathy may overcome the AFIs but the Academy Awards are bullet proof. Even when they make the most egregious of errors (Crash, Roberto Benigni, denying aforementioned Big Russ of back-to-back gongs) I am still an ardent follower.

But what of predictions? It's like the Melbourne Cup where people who have no idea about horse racing authoritatively give their tips. They are clueless about form in the lead-up races and use a complex method of favourite numbers, horses names and jockey's colours to pick their favourites.

And that's the secret - I know what and who I would like to win but that bears no relation to the reality that is the Borg-like hive mind of The Academy. But it's my blog so I'll indulge in one category before my predictions...

Best Picture

I have seen 7 of the Best Picture nominees. The Fighter doesn't interest me in the slightest; I can't bring myself to go see 127 Hours because I am a sooky la la; and I don't even know if Winter's Bone has screened here(?). Of the remaining seven I would rank them in this order:

Black Swan, True Grit, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Inception, Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right.

Now, Black Swan has about as much chance of winning Best Picture as Michael Bay does of making a costume drama based on a classic English novel. More's the pity (the former, NOT the latter).

To my predictions then. And let me say, this seems to be a pretty predictable year for the major categories. Except the Oscars always throw up at least one surprise so you have to factor that in:

Best Picture: The King's Speech (safe, period piece, English, "semi-retard")

Best Director: David Fincher (for not screwing up Sorkin's script)

Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler (for damn well persisting all those years)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin (for making a Greek tragedy out of an uber-geek's life)

Best Actor: Colin Firth (has cleaned up every other major award)

Best Actress: Natalie Portman (all is forgiven for the Star Wars prequels)

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (again, has swept all the lead-up awards)

Pretty predictable so far, right? Which means there has to be an upset and I'm tipping it will be in:

Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (for carrying True Grit in astounding fashion)

I'll add one more to give me nine categories:

Best Cinematography: Asking a colour blind screenwriter to pick this is like my Melbourne Cup analogy... BUT I'm going to predict Black Swan gets thrown a bone here over True Grit.

What are your tips? What categories do you care about? Who will cry first? Who will tank first? Who will have worst scripted joke? What will Ben Stiller do this year? How many minutes will this run over time?